LGM

The baseball season ended yesterday so it’s a good day to discuss the national pastime. I’ll start with the Mets. I might end with the Mets too. There might be nothing but the Mets. It depends on how much I have to say.

FiveThirtyEight’s preseason prediction for the Mets was 84—78, they finished at 86 — 76, slightly exceeding expectations. This seems to surprise many people who think the season is a disappointment. It wasn’t, it was right on target. The team’s biggest weakness was relief pitching but that didn’t hurt the team as much as it felt like it did. A team’s Pythagorean record is based on the number of runs scored and the number of runs allowed. It is usually an accurate predictor of a team’s actual record. If a team greatly exceeds its Pythagorean record, as the 1969 Mets did by a large margin, you can call them lucky or clutch or a team of destiny. If a team falls far behind it, you can call them unlucky or chokers. Relief pitching has a lot to do with it. If a team blows a lot of close games, then its actual record will be worse than its Pythagorean. What was the Mets Pythagorean record? 86.4 – 75.6. The Mets were not lucky or unlucky, clutch or chokers; they finished with the record they deserved, neither more nor less. Their record reflected their talent level.

For years I have conjectured that this is exactly what the Mets management wants, a team that can get to the wild card game if they are lucky, not a team that is consistently good. If so, they are succeeding. In the last 20 seasons that have won more than 90 games only twice, 97 in 2006 and 94 in 2000. In 2015 they won exactly 90 games, reached the wild card, got lucky, and reached the world series. That was enough to convince the ownership that they were doing things right. What happens in the post-season is largely luck, regular season depends more on skill; it’s a matter of sample size. I love the way one writer put it. The Tigers, the worst team in the majors, managed to beat a better team 47 times.

All that being said, I am now more optimistic about the Mets for next season than I was. They won the lottery twice this season, with Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso establishing themselves as stars. We can expect some regression to the mean for both but it’s likely they will be very good. The Mets have one more position player in the top 25 by fWAR; can you guess who it is? The fact that many people can’t show how underrated he is. It’s Michael Conforto at 23. On the WAR scale all-stars tend to have a WAR of 4+, Conforto’s was 3.8, just a little short. Freddie Freeman who is considered a star has a WAR of 4.0 They have two other players in the top 50, Amed Rosario at 2.7 and J.D. Davis at 2.4 playing only part time. Those are numbers of solid regulars. That can be a foundation of a team. Here’s how I see the Mets for next year if the make no additions. Of course, if they make no additions they will likely end up about the same as this year. A team that wants to be great would add someone. The number next to each player is their fWAR, f for Fangraphs.

C – Wilson Ramos (1.4) – Most Met fans are very happy with Ramos, they shouldn’t be. That’s the WAR of a marginal starter. The problem is his defense. Catching talent is shallow now so they probably won’t be able to improve so he’s it for now. Good coaching might be able to improve him.

1B – Pete Alonso (4.8) – I’m not expecting him to do better next season, Judge has yet to match his rookie year, but he was the best first baseman in baseball this year. Three cheers for Piston Pete who gave the Met Fans a legitimate star.

2B – Jeff McNeil (4.6) – Another legitimate star that came out of the blue. He never showed this in the minors. He spent years injured and is only now coming into his own. What about Cano? The highest paid Met is not one of their 8 best players so shouldn’t be a regular. The Mets must find a way to move him, buy him out, or have the league’s most expensive sub. At least he’s better than Chris Davis, so he’s not the most overpaid player.

SS – Amed Rosario (2.7) – The once number 2 prospect in baseball has started to show what he can do. Over the second half he earned 1.7 WAR, good enough for third among NL shortstops. It’s not much of a reach for him to be an all-star next season.

3B – J.D. Davis (2.4) – The question is can he hold up the defensive end of the position? I’d like to have him in the lineup and another possibility is the outfield

LF – Dom Smith (0.8) – He earned that WAR in about a third of a season which makes him an acceptable starter. Like Davis there’s a question of defense.

CF – Brandon Nimmo (1.3) – Brandon had only 254 plate appearances. That figured to 3.0 and that’s with him having a terrible start. In 2018 his WAR was 4.5, all-star level in only 538 PA. Pro-rate that to 600 and you get 5.0. Once again there is a defense problem, he’s better suited to corner outfield.

RF – Michael Conforto (3.8) – Michael was healthy this year and had 648 PA.

The Mets can have between 0 and 5 All-Stars in that group. I expect there will be two or three. There is a problem on defense. The team I described is below average at every position but shortstop. The position they are most in need of is third base. Guess who the best position player who is going to be a free agent this winter? It’s the best third baseman in the league, and maybe all of baseball, Anthony Rendon. This is where we see if the Mets are serious about winning. They decided to not rebuild, but to win now. This is how they win now.

That would make either Smith or Davis as extra pieces. Sure, they can be super subs but perhaps one could be traded for a center fielder. I’d consider trading them both for a star and using McNeil at third even though that would mean moving Cano into the starting lineup.

I’ll have to save pitching for tomorrow. I should give you the link to the Fangraphs Leaderboard. When you land it will be set for just the NL and players with enough PA to qualify for the batting title. Play with it, play with the splits. It’s a lot of fun and informative. It will help you get a feel for WAR; all serious baseball fans should. I should write an entry about the stats revolution. I will. After I do one on the Mets’ pitching.