I surprised my therapist by asking how the hospital is preparing for COVID-19? She said I was the last patient she’d think was worried about that. I’m not germophobic and medical issues are the one thing I have less anxiety about than most people. I’m not afraid of getting COVID-19 and picturing me or my friends dying from it. I do want people to have a rational response to it and rational requires taking precautions. Let’s say it is no worse than the seasonal flu, a definite possibility. The seasonal flu kills more people than cars are guns. No worse than the seasonal flu is terrible. That’s why I get my flu shots every year and encourage everyone else to get theirs. Keep in mind that this is not just to protect yourself, but everyone else. It’s selfish to not get vaccinated. We need enough people vaccinated to create herd immunity. We have to decrease the pool of people the disease can spread too. The infection rate is the number of people that the average sick person infects. If it is more than one the disease spreads, less than one it doesn’t. Let’s say the infection rate was 1.5, that means the disease spreads. If a vaccine was 50% effective and everyone got it the number would drop to .75 and the disease will die out. The lower the effectiveness of the vaccine the higher the vaccination rate needs to be to create herd immunity. Instead people’s reactions are selfish. They hear the effectiveness is 60% so they don’t get it. While the intentions are not selfish the result is selfish. Ignorance kills and not just the ignorant people.
There is no vaccine for COVID-19 so what can we do? Take other precautions which are less effective. That means that even more people need to do them. I’m working hard now to be sure to wash my hands for a full 20 seconds with soap and water. I don’t sing Happy Birthday twice. I count, one one-thousand, two one-thousand, etc. I time my hand movements to the count. I should have been doing that my whole life. I didn’t. I can’t change the past, but I can change the present. Again, this is not to help me. I never get infectious diseases other than colds. It’s to protect others. I’m now working on not touching my face. That’s far more difficult. As soon as I wrote that I got an itch to the side of my nose. Now it’s even worse, it’s by my eye. The eyes and noses are the worst places to touch. Those are the entry points for disease. Make the effort, not for yourself but for others.
I asked about the hospital where I get my therapy. If COVID-19 becomes pervasive enough we might have to take extreme measures like Japan which closed schools for a month. Having therapy by phone is an obvious measure that can be taken. I was told that insurance won’t cover phone sessions because of privacy issues. Those issues are valid, but the cost/benefit analysis has to change with changing circumstances. We have to be flexible. I don’t think we will reach the point of needing to do that, but we need to be prepared if it does. Major sports need to prepare. There was just a major soccer match at an empty stadium. Sports might have to be something we watch on TV for a while. That’s terrible but it might be for the best. The thing is to do it only out of careful analysis, not gut fear. To weigh the costs and benefits we have to know the costs and benefits.
Do you trust the Trump administration to carefully weigh the data and not react from the gut? I know I don’t. Trump’s whole MO is to rely on his gut and distrust experts. When he started to use COVID-19 as an excuse to tighten the border with Mexico even more somebody talked him out of it. That’s hopeful.
Don’t live your life in fear. Don’t buy a face mask. Don’t be a shut in, at least for now. Don’t cancel your trips, except to high risk areas. Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. You can’t do that so minimize touching your face. Get in the habit now. One more thing.
Wise Madness 