Isolate

To isolate or not to isolate, that is the question. The more I read the more I become convinced that isolation is necessary to limit the spread of COVID-19. The numbers all agree, the sooner people isolate the sooner and greater extent that it stops spreading. I hate this, I’m a social person. I’m a physically affectionate person. I’m a person that want to go out often. Take me out to the ballgame, take me out to the crowd. I found this particularly compelling, Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now. I’m not a panicker. I’m not panicking now. I’m usually telling people that they are over-reacting to things like shootings and terrorists attacks. Why is this different? It’s a much bigger threat and more importantly we can do something about this. It’s within our power to make things better. That makes in incumbent on us to do them. We must be part of the solution. Yes, it’s inconvenient. It’s beyond inconvenient, it’s painful. Two concerts that I was looking forward to were just canceled. I not only can’t blame the people responsible I praise them. I have to decide if I’m seeing Karen Dahlstrom tomorrow. It’s been ages since I’ve seen her solo and too long since I’ve seen her socially. It’s in a small venue, the Museum of American Folk Art. I can choose to stand and keep 6 feet away from anyone. Instead of giving Karen a hug I can do a Namaste. Is that enough caution? I think so. The size of the crowd is very important.

Diseases spread exponentially which leads people to misjudging the danger. The number of people affected grows much faster than most intuit. People here there are 100 cases and think that’s not so bad. After ten doublings that’s over 100,000, ten more, over 100 million. People are also fooled because the reported number of cases is a gross underestimate. We only know after the disease has run its course how many are affected now. If you here there are three deaths that means there were about 300 cases, and that was two weeks ago. There are now 3,000 cases. We don’t feel the effects until it is too late.

If we cut it off now it will not be a huge problem. The health system will not be overtaxed and that will bring the mortality rate down. Unfortunately, people will then call it a false alarm. We did a good job of containing SARS. So, what did I see? Someone saying, “They told us that SARS was terrible and it wasn’t.” It wasn’t because we did something about it.

We need to make it easier for people to isolate. It’s been suggested that everyone be eligible for paid sick leave. That’s true, but small businesses should not have to bear the costs. That’s grossly unfair. If a small company has 5 employees and three get sick how it is supposed to be able to stay in business having to pay both their sick employees and their replacements. In the future we can set up an insurance system, that’s how you spread the risk evenly. We don’t have time to do that now. What I suggest is that the Federal Government, which can now borrow money incredibly cheaply, should pay people that need to isolate. That includes not just people that work for small businesses but independent contractors, the gig economy. COVID-19 is going to wreak havoc on the economy, that’s a very well-directed stimulus that will automatically expand as needed and targets those most in need. God is in the details and those need to be worked out by wiser heads than mine.

The choices are not panic or do nothing. It’s living your life as fully as possible while taking effective precautions. My next Knick game is canceled, but I’ll likely go see Karen while taking the precautions I alluded to. If people stop going to movies, I’ll go to a movie, it won’t be crowded. Theaters could put in mandatory gaps I the seating. To leave space.

I have an idea for public transit that I’m not sure is both feasible and effective but could be. If people carried around disinfectant wipes and wiped down the polls and straps immediately around them the fomites, surfaces that can carry infection, should be relatively clean. It doesn’t require everyone doing it. Maybe one person out of ten.

Much of the problem is due to people’s distrust of authority. They just don’t believe there’s a danger. If I read one more person say that it’s the media trying to scare us I’m going to scream. These people are just like Trump, they hear something they don’t like they smear the messenger. Don’t make me scream. Listen to the doctors; they know more than you do. Every friend I have that is either a doctor or has a doctorate in the life sciences takes the threat seriously. My personal physician takes the threat seriously. You need to take the threat seriously. Remember this is for the benefit of others, especially those with compromised immune systems. If you expose yourself you also expose them.